The latest nowcasts from our Scottish nowcasting model cover the 3rd quarter of 2019.
Our model suggest that:
- Growth in Q3 is 0.28% which, at an annual rate, is 1.13%
This growth estimate comes after the release of official estimates of economic growth in 2019 Q2 from the Scottish Government which showed that the Scottish economy contracted by -0.3% in Q2. This was slightly more than the UK as a whole, which contracted by -0.2%.
However the Scottish economy did grow 0.7% relative the the same quarter the year before, albeit again this was weaker than the UK as a whole, which expanded 1.2%.
This post reports a series of nowcasts which have yet been reported on the blog. Official estimates for Q2 have now been released by the Scottish Government showing a contraction of -0.3%.
For Q3 our current estimates are:
- September estimate: Growth in 2019 Q3 (July – September) of 0.30% which, at an annual rate, is 1.21%
- August estimate: growth of 0.30% in 2019 Q3 which, at an annual rate is 1.21%.
Shortly we will produce new estimates incorporating the new Q2 growth data from the Scottish Government.
It is also worth noting that an alternative set of nowcasts is available covering all NUTS1 regions of the UK, also produced by researchers at the Fraser of Allander Institute. These estimates are available at: www.escoe.ac.uk/regionalnowcasting.
This month our nowcasting model has produced the following estimates of economic growth in Scotland in Q1 and Q2 2019:
- GDP growth in 2019 Q1 is estimated to be 0.29% which, at an annual rate, is 1.18%
- GDP growth in 2019 Q2 is estimated to be 0.31% which, at an annual rate, is 1.26%
Later this month (27th June) we will receive official estimates of economic growth for Q1 2019 from the Scottish Government, and we will be able to compare these to our own estimates.
Our latest nowcast suggests that this number will come in around 0.3%, but having dipped very slightly in the latest estimate, perhaps it could surprise on the downside!
This morning the latest UK data for growth in Q1 2019 were released. These put UK growth at 0.5% in Q1, with growth in production, construction and service sectors.
In this blog we release our nowcasts of the Scottish economy in Q1 2019 and Q2 2019.
The UK numbers were stronger than growth in the previous quarter (which was a disappointing 0.2%), and stronger than might have been expected.