December 2014 (Inaugural) Nowcast

Today (1st December 2014) we release our first set of public nowcast estimates. Given the lag in publication of official estimates of GDP for Scotland (2014 Quarter 3 (Q3) GDP is not released until January 2015), we are therefore releasing estimates of GDP growth for both Q3 and Q4 of 2014 [1].

Headlines:

  •  2014Q3 GDP growth in Scotland, at an annualised rate, is nowcast to be 3.13%, the quarterly change is nowcast to be 0.77%
  •  2014Q4 GDP growth in Scotland, at an annualised rate, is nowcast to be 2.76%, the quarterly change is nowcast to be 0.68%

Official GVA figures currently record Scottish growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2014 as 0.95% and 0.93% respectively. Our nowcasts for growth therefore suggest a continued slowing of the rate of growth during the second half of 2014.

In terms of new information received this month, and included in our estimates, examples include:

  • Bank of Scotland PMI Scotland [2] shows growth in October, rising from 51.5 to 54.2, but is still below average for the year, down from the highs of the first half of the year.
  • Global and Eurozone level PMI continued to reflect a slowing in economic activity.
  • The GfK Scotland Consumer Confidence survey, shows a marked dip in household confidence in October 2014

For details of how these, and other “live” data on Scottish economic activity are used to construct “nowcasts”, see the Methodology page.


[1] Note as explained in the methodological paper (here),  we nowcast gross value addded (GVA) rather than gross domestic product (GDP), because this is the regional equivalent of GDP which is produced, but we refer here to GDP for intuitive ease.

[2] Bank of Scotland PMI Scotland in October 2014 are reported by Lloyds Banking Group here.

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