January nowcasts

Happy New Year!

We start 2017 with a new update from our nowcasting model for Scotland. These nowcasts relate to the last two quarters of 2016, a year which has offered plenty of economic challenges for the Scottish economy.

We will receive official estimates of Scottish GVA for 2016 Q3 next week. For the moment, our model produces the following estimates:

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2016 Q3  is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.29% (essentially unchanged from our last nowcast update).
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2016 Q4 is 0.38% which, at an annual rate, is 1.53% (this is very, very slightly up on our last nowcast update).

Data published next week will be the first official figures on economic activity in Scotland in the immediate period after the Brexit vote. 

For comparison purposes, growth for the UK as a whole in the third quarter was recently revised up to 0.6%, partly on the back of stronger than expected consumer expenditure growth.

Note, the current data show that Q1 growth in Scotland was 0.0%, and in Q2 was above expectations, coming in at 0.4%.