Slightly later than usual, we release our August nowcast results. These are our latest estimates of economic growth in Scotland in Q2 and Q3 of 2017, and show:
GVA growth in 2017 Q2 is estimated to be 0.49% which, at an annual rate, is 1.98%
GVA growth in 2017 Q3 is estimated to be 0.40% which, at an annual rate, is 1.62%
After surprisingly rapid growth of 0.8% in Q1 in Scotland, our nowcast estimates suggest slower growth in Q2 and Q3.
The latest Fraser Economic Commentary highlighted the challenges still facing the Scottish economy and we would reemphasise those. In addition, we note that the UK economy –which had a surprisingly strong 2016- has weakened in recent quarters. This will have an implication for Scottish trade with the rest of the UK and may therefore dampen growth in Scotland through 2017.