Nowcasting estimates for April!

With Scottish GDP data out tomorrow, this blog provides a (very!) quick and brief update on our latest estimates of recent and current Scottish GDP:

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2017Q4  is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.28%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018Q1 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.43%

We will see how close our point estimate is to the data for 2017 Q4 released tomorrow.

Meanwhile, for the interested reader, the chart below summarises the first release, latest release, and average nowcast estimate for Scottish GDP since 2014.

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We can see that while our model does not generate estimates with the same volatility as the official GVA series, nevertheless, there is a clear consistency to the trend observed in all three series. We can also see that the revisions which take place to the GDP estimates can be substantial (e.g. Q1 2014, or Q2 2016).

Similarly, as the chart below shows, our average nowcast estimate over this same period is very close to the average initial release estimate for Scottish GDP over this period, suggesting that -on average- our model has been reasonably good at estimating changes in Scottish GDP.

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