Slightly later than usual, here are our monthly nowcasts of the Scottish economy, covering the first two quarters of 2018.
Our model suggests that:
- GVA growth in 2018 Q1 was 0.29%, or at an annual rate 1.18%
- GVA growth in 2018 Q2 is 0.29%, or at an annual rate 1.16%
Next month the Scottish Government will release official estimates covering the first three months of 2018, against which we can compare our Q1 estimate.
By way of comparison, UK GDP growth in Q1 was only 0.1%. If our nowcasts are correct, this would be substantially weaker than growth in Scotland over the same period.
Similarly, if our nowcasts are accurate, it would also mean that the economy has realised nearly half of the growth that the Scottish Fiscal Commission recently forecast for 2018 as a whole (they estimate growth over the year of 0.7%).
0.3% growth in the first three months of 2018 is nothing to write home about, but it would be better than the UK in the same period, and better than many might be expecting.
Next week the Fraser Economic Commentary, supported by Deloitte, is released. This will contain updated forecasts for the Scottish economy for 2018 and beyond. It will also look in more detail about what the various survey and data releases tell us about the health of the Scottish economy.