Apologies for the late release of this nowcast update.
We held off producing a February nowcast update as we awaited information on Consumer Confidence. However as we reach the halfway point in the month, we must push on without this indicator in the model.
The latest official estimates of GDP growth for Scotland cover 2018 Q3. These estimate growth of 0.2%.
Our model suggests that growth remains weak in Scotland.
Our latest nowcasts is that the Scottish economy grew by a below trend 0.31% (albeit slightly above the UK – which was 0.2%) in Q4 2018. At an annualised rate this is 1.24%.
Growth in 2019 Q1 is expected to be similarly weak with a nowcast estimate of 0.33%, which at an annual rate is 1.31%.
The next month or so will be a critical period for the UK and Scottish economy as we head towards 29th March 2019. Perhaps by the time of our next nowcast in a couple of weeks we will have a clearer idea of the economic landscape post March 29th.