March Nowcast Update

Global pandemic fears notwithstanding, and in honour of tradition, we’ve produced updated nowcasts for the Scottish economy.

While these are ‘nowcasts’ importantly they are underpinned by the available economic data.

To date, we have limited economic data on the world economy following the spread of Coronavirus, and even less on the Scottish economy since the detection of the virus in Scotland.

In time, and as more data is released, we expect to better understand the effect that this global health emergency has on the economy.

In the meantime, our model estimates – absent any substantial change in the underlying economic indicators – is for continued albeit weak growth.

Specifically our estimates are for:

  • Growth in 2019 Q4 of 0.27% which, at an annual rate, is 1.08%
  •  Growth in 2020 Q1 of 0.27% which, at an annual rate, is 1.10%

Later this month we will release a new edition of the Fraser Economic Commentary where we will provide a wider analysis of the leading indicators of the global, UK and Scottish economy and a wider discussion of the likely impact of the virus on the Scottish economy.