4. Summary of Nowcasts Estimates

On this page we provide all of our real-time nowcast data in one place on a quarterly and annualised basis for ease of reference.

In response to a request from the media, we produced nowcasts from the start of 2014 using our model. These earlier nowcasts were not generated in ‘real-time’ by which we mean that they were not generated using the latest data available at the time to which the nowcast relates, but were instead generated using the latest data vintage at the point at which we generated these ‘backcasts’ (which was the vintage used to produce our September 2015 real-time nowcasts). The empirical model and the variables that we used were exactly the same, but in the intervening period there will have been some data revisions and we do not account for in the ‘backcasts’ which we report here. These ‘backcasts’ are indicated in red font in the tables that follow. Real time nowcasts are indicated in black text.

Nowcast: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Actual*             
2014 Q1 0.50% 0.48% 0.47% 0.46% 0.48% 0.52% 0.7%
2014 Q2 0.52% 0.52% 0.54% 0.63% 0.64% 0.65% 1.0%
2014 Q3 0.61% 0.61% 0.61% 0.64% 0.77% 0.64% 0.5%
2014 Q4 0.59% 0.68% 0.70% 0.64% 0.66% 0.68% 0.9%
2015 Q1 0.70% 0.55% 0.57% 0.53% 0.52% 0.48% 0.6%
2015 Q2 0.51% 0.52% 0.49% 0.54% 0.53% 0.53% 0.1%
2015 Q3 0.50% 0.49% 0.48% 0.33% 0.36% 0.35% 0.1%
2015 Q4 0.43% 0.40% 0.41% 0.34%
2016 Q1 0.38%
 

 

 
Nowcast: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Actual*             
2014 Q1 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.7%
2014 Q2 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 4.2%
2014 Q3 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.2%
2014 Q4 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.5%
2015 Q1 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6%
2015 Q2 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 0.3%
2015 Q3 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 0.3%
2015 Q4 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.4%
2016 Q1 1.5%
 

NOTE: In terms of timings, 1st Nowcast is generated at end of the 1st month of the quarter, and incorporates data released during that quarter (which typically related to the previous month (i.e. the last month of the previous quarter)).

*Based on latest release.