This post reports a series of nowcasts which have yet been reported on the blog. Official estimates for Q2 have now been released by the Scottish Government showing a contraction of -0.3%.
For Q3 our current estimates are:
- September estimate: Growth in 2019 Q3 (July – September) of 0.30% which, at an annual rate, is 1.21%
- August estimate: growth of 0.30% in 2019 Q3 which, at an annual rate is 1.21%.
Shortly we will produce new estimates incorporating the new Q2 growth data from the Scottish Government.
It is also worth noting that an alternative set of nowcasts is available covering all NUTS1 regions of the UK, also produced by researchers at the Fraser of Allander Institute. These estimates are available at: www.escoe.ac.uk/regionalnowcasting.
This month our nowcasting model has produced the following estimates of economic growth in Scotland in Q1 and Q2 2019:
- GDP growth in 2019 Q1 is estimated to be 0.29% which, at an annual rate, is 1.18%
- GDP growth in 2019 Q2 is estimated to be 0.31% which, at an annual rate, is 1.26%
Later this month (27th June) we will receive official estimates of economic growth for Q1 2019 from the Scottish Government, and we will be able to compare these to our own estimates.
Our latest nowcast suggests that this number will come in around 0.3%, but having dipped very slightly in the latest estimate, perhaps it could surprise on the downside!
This morning the latest UK data for growth in Q1 2019 were released. These put UK growth at 0.5% in Q1, with growth in production, construction and service sectors.
In this blog we release our nowcasts of the Scottish economy in Q1 2019 and Q2 2019.
The UK numbers were stronger than growth in the previous quarter (which was a disappointing 0.2%), and stronger than might have been expected.
With 29th of March now behind us, but with the uncertainty remaining rather than resolved, we have produced a new nowcast for the Scottish economy for Q1 2019.
Since our last nowcast in early March we have received official estimates of GDP growth in 2018 Q4. These place growth in Q4 at +0.3%, slightly ahead of UK growth in Q4 of 0.2%.
This is in line with our last nowcast for Q4 2018 which put growth at 0.29%.
Services growth again outpaced the overall economy with growth of 0.5% in Q4 of 2018, but production sector growth was down -0.9% for the second quarter in a row.
These latest official data put overall growth in Scotland in 2018 at 1.4%, still significantly below long-run trend growth.
Turning to growth in Q1 2019, our latest estimate puts growth at 0.31%, or at an annualised rate 1.26%.
One reason for this is that consumer and business confidence remains low.
We will set out some scenarios for different Brexit scenarios in the next Fraser Economic Commentary.
These will consider how any resolution to the political and economic uncertainty around Brexit – and any likely policy response – might impact on economic outcomes over the forecast horizon.
We will continue to produce monthly nowcasts to seek to identify any movements in quarterly growth rates.