Second Nowcast for Q4 2014

Today we release our second set of public nowcast estimates.

We still do not have official estimates of GDP for Scotland for Q3 2014, but these are due very shortly (January 2015),  therefore we are only releasing estimates of GDP growth for Q4 of 2014 [1].

Headlines:

  • 2014Q4 GDP growth in Scotland, at an annualised rate, is nowcast to be 2.81%, the quarterly change is nowcast to be 0.696%
  • This represents a slight upward revision to the previous nowcast for Q4 2014 which produced an estimate of 2.76% (at an annualised rate). 

Even though there has been a very slight upwards revision to our nowcast for Q4 2014, these estimate both reflect a slowing down in the rate of growth in the Scottish economy through 2014[3].

This is consistent with other news this month, for instance the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) reporting a weakening in small business confidence for the second quarter in succession. In addition, the Bank of Scotland Jobs report showed a slowing in the growth of employment in Scotland towards the end of 2014.

One caveat to our results presented here: we did not have the UK Index of Services (released on 23rd December) when producing these estimates (we produced these nowcasts slightly earlier this month due to the disruption of the festive period).

For details of how these, and other “live” data on Scottish economic activity are used to construct “nowcasts”, see the Methodology page.


[1] Note as explained in the methodological paper (here),  we nowcast gross value addded (GVA) rather than gross domestic product (GDP), because this is the regional equivalent of GDP which is produced, but we refer here to GDP for intuitive ease.

[2] Bank of Scotland PMI Scotland in October 2014 are reported by Lloyds Banking Group here.

[3] Official GVA figures currently record Scottish growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2014 as 0.95% and 0.93% respectively.

December 2014 (Inaugural) Nowcast

Today (1st December 2014) we release our first set of public nowcast estimates. Given the lag in publication of official estimates of GDP for Scotland (2014 Quarter 3 (Q3) GDP is not released until January 2015), we are therefore releasing estimates of GDP growth for both Q3 and Q4 of 2014 [1].

Headlines:

  •  2014Q3 GDP growth in Scotland, at an annualised rate, is nowcast to be 3.13%, the quarterly change is nowcast to be 0.77%
  •  2014Q4 GDP growth in Scotland, at an annualised rate, is nowcast to be 2.76%, the quarterly change is nowcast to be 0.68%

Official GVA figures currently record Scottish growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2014 as 0.95% and 0.93% respectively. Our nowcasts for growth therefore suggest a continued slowing of the rate of growth during the second half of 2014.

In terms of new information received this month, and included in our estimates, examples include:

  • Bank of Scotland PMI Scotland [2] shows growth in October, rising from 51.5 to 54.2, but is still below average for the year, down from the highs of the first half of the year.
  • Global and Eurozone level PMI continued to reflect a slowing in economic activity.
  • The GfK Scotland Consumer Confidence survey, shows a marked dip in household confidence in October 2014

For details of how these, and other “live” data on Scottish economic activity are used to construct “nowcasts”, see the Methodology page.


[1] Note as explained in the methodological paper (here),  we nowcast gross value addded (GVA) rather than gross domestic product (GDP), because this is the regional equivalent of GDP which is produced, but we refer here to GDP for intuitive ease.

[2] Bank of Scotland PMI Scotland in October 2014 are reported by Lloyds Banking Group here.